{
 "pricingPolicy": {
  "version": "incident-closed-2026-10-07-v1",
  "active": false,
  "cutoff": "2026-09-24T00:00:00Z",
  "excludedUntil": "2026-10-07T00:00:00Z",
  "reviewedBAYCTrainingBefore": 1789914778,
  "baselineRelease": "b374",
  "valuationAsOf": "2026-09-23T08:31:34.385Z",
  "kodaBaselineSha256": "72670abef2103a0a0de3bd1882533db2333977c91b2bcc7117fcd256d39179ff",
  "reason": "September 24 through October 6 activity remains permanently excluded; pricing resumes with eligible sales from October 7 UTC."
 },
 "asOf": "2026-10-26T08:29:49.586Z",
 "proxy": 0.0569,
 "floor": 0.0619,
 "modelAsOf": "2026-09-02",
 "drift": {
  "windowDays": 14,
  "n": 120,
  "medianActualOverModel": 0.998,
  "raw7": {
   "medianActualOverModel": 1.036,
   "n": 68,
   "segmentCounts": {
    "all": 68,
    "plain": 53,
    "slots4": 4,
    "dens6p": 6,
    "envt5": 2,
    "artifact": 13,
    "rare": 5,
    "rare2p": 0,
    "rareT3": 1
   },
   "segments": {
    "all": 1.036,
    "plain": 1.036,
    "slots4": 1.574,
    "dens6p": 1.308,
    "envt5": 0.948,
    "artifact": 1.073,
    "rare": 1.199,
    "rare2p": null,
    "rareT3": 0.999
   }
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 },
 "model": {
  "correctionReference": null,
  "pricingPolicy": {
   "version": "incident-closed-2026-10-07-v1",
   "active": false,
   "cutoff": "2026-09-24T00:00:00Z",
   "excludedUntil": "2026-10-07T00:00:00Z",
   "reviewedBAYCTrainingBefore": 1789914778,
   "baselineRelease": "b374",
   "valuationAsOf": "2026-09-23T08:31:34.385Z",
   "kodaBaselineSha256": "72670abef2103a0a0de3bd1882533db2333977c91b2bcc7117fcd256d39179ff",
   "reason": "September 24 through October 6 activity remains permanently excluded; pricing resumes with eligible sales from October 7 UTC."
  },
  "resourceCurve": {
   "schema": "mrdeeds-resource-curve/1",
   "version": "rare-t3-tail-2026-09-11",
   "approvedAt": "2026-09-11T13:38:19Z",
   "formula": "exp(a + b*ln(supply) + gamma*max(0,ln(pivot/supply)))",
   "base": {
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     "a": 9.819,
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    },
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     "a": 11.541,
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   },
   "tail": {
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    "pivot": 250,
    "gamma": 0.5982864617528476
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   "method": "Weighted log residual regression at the existing 250-deposit very-rare boundary. Latest sale per deed; ETH and explicitly reviewed negotiated WETH only; reviewed weight 3, other sales 60-day half-life. Same-resource packages split per deposit. No artifact, Koda, island, Chaos or rare-environment T5 carriers.",
   "validation": {
    "asOf": "2026-09-11T13:30:00.000Z",
    "pivot": 250,
    "gamma": 0.5982864617528476,
    "without18293": 0.5657154864038606,
    "n": 26,
    "tail": [
     {
      "id": "6362",
      "at": "2026-09-02T09:05:59.000Z",
      "eth": 2.005,
      "currency": "WETH",
      "resource": "Galactica",
      "supply": 160,
      "component": 1.8500278583293208,
      "count": 1,
      "admitted": true,
      "old": 1.452881065872348,
      "new": 1.8473588586110776,
      "leaveResourceOut": 1.79321229625908
     },
     {
      "id": "31981",
      "at": "2026-04-25T16:15:11.000Z",
      "eth": 1.27,
      "currency": "ETH",
      "resource": "Aurelian",
      "supply": 193,
      "component": 0.7891317381427025,
      "count": 1,
      "admitted": false,
      "old": 0.9505929461089413,
      "new": 1.092822436757121,
      "leaveResourceOut": 1.0941436437859116
     },
     {
      "id": "32363",
      "at": "2026-08-05T10:05:23.000Z",
      "eth": 1.2319,
      "currency": "ETH",
      "resource": "Sporicite",
      "supply": 183,
      "component": 0.9255745317407755,
      "count": 1,
      "admitted": false,
      "old": 1.1086339717609446,
      "new": 1.304830295074937,
      "leaveResourceOut": 1.3119340976372966
     },
     {
      "id": "75181",
      "at": "2026-08-31T21:17:59.000Z",
      "eth": 1.655,
      "currency": "WETH",
      "resource": "Fragmentia",
      "supply": 159,
      "component": 1.5778385078668458,
      "count": 1,
      "admitted": true,
      "old": 1.391601504072209,
      "new": 1.7980334689503867,
      "leaveResourceOut": 1.8496217314182968
     },
     {
      "id": "18293",
      "at": "2026-09-11T00:58:35.000Z",
      "eth": 5.255,
      "currency": "WETH",
      "resource": "Dimensional",
      "supply": 139,
      "component": 2.5644745323451423,
      "count": 2,
      "admitted": true,
      "old": 3.6354689924293595,
      "new": 5.118615210182227,
      "leaveResourceOut": 5.023775489738323
     }
    ],
    "overall": {
     "old": {
      "n": 26,
      "mdape": 0.17565146749447513,
      "within25": 0.6153846153846154,
      "mae": 0.15887839489031602
     },
     "candidate": {
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      "mdape": 0.17565146749447513,
      "within25": 0.6923076923076923,
      "mae": 0.09447900569688458
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     "leaveResourceOut": {
      "n": 26,
      "mdape": 0.17565146749447513,
      "within25": 0.6923076923076923,
      "mae": 0.1025174501143831
     }
    },
    "scarce": {
     "old": {
      "n": 5,
      "mdape": 0.1629013725543469,
      "within25": 0.6,
      "mae": 0.5053314768674553
     },
     "leaveResourceOut": {
      "n": 5,
      "mdape": 0.11261435700745537,
      "within25": 1,
      "mae": 0.21225456403260426
     }
    },
    "points": [
     {
      "supply": 139,
      "multiplier": 1.4207520813930583
     },
     {
      "supply": 159,
      "multiplier": 1.3109585092926561
     },
     {
      "supply": 160,
      "multiplier": 1.3060502828863987
     },
     {
      "supply": 183,
      "multiplier": 1.20520572476961
     },
     {
      "supply": 193,
      "multiplier": 1.1674466619637103
     },
     {
      "supply": 200,
      "multiplier": 1.1428255697552443
     },
     {
      "supply": 250,
      "multiplier": 1
     },
     {
      "supply": 350,
      "multiplier": 1
     }
    ]
   },
   "limitations": "Five independent scarce T3 deeds. Leave-resource-out checks are retrospective, not a future trading test. Other resources borrow a scarcity relationship, not direct sale evidence. T1, T2 and the curve at supply 250 or above are unchanged."
  },
  "floor": 0.0619,
  "proxy": 0.0569,
  "base": {
   "mult": 0.9367,
   "fitted": 1.019
  },
  "bandPct": 0.09,
  "gradRefs": {
   "res": 772,
   "env": 6000,
   "art": 500,
   "cell": 973
  },
  "thinSegment": {
   "minSupply": 250,
   "bandPct": 0.35,
   "_note": "A deed whose tightest segment (environment×tier, or a rare-class artifact) has fewer than minSupply members is rendered as a FLOOR with a widened band, not a point estimate. Acid T5 (127) and Botanical T5 (165) trip this."
  },
  "island": {
   "max_id": 300,
   "floor_clean_eth": 2.99,
   "core_over_outer": 1.498,
   "n_sales": 17,
   "window_days": 180,
   "marketReview": {
    "version": "club-island-ask-review-2026-10-10",
    "reviewedAt": "2026-10-10",
    "referenceDeed": 229,
    "observedAskEth": 2.79,
    "firstObserved": "2026-09-06",
    "lastObserved": "2026-10-10",
    "snapshotCount": 21,
    "margin": 0.05,
    "baseCeilingEth": 2.37,
    "basis": "Reviewed downward ceiling from a persistent unsold ask; not a sale-derived floor or an empirically fitted discount."
   },
   "reviewed_base_eth": 2.37
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  "factors": {
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    "n": 195
   },
   "env_rare": {
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    "n": 98
   },
   "env_scarce2": {
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    "n": 120
   },
   "env_mid": {
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    "n": 591
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   "tier4": {
    "mult": 1.019,
    "n": 321
   },
   "tier5": {
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    "n": 177
   },
   "art_common": {
    "mult": 1.408,
    "n": 103
   },
   "art_medium": {
    "mult": 1.408,
    "n": 253
   },
   "art_rare": {
    "mult": 1.585,
    "n": 45
   },
   "slots3": {
    "mult": 1.074,
    "n": 283
   },
   "slots4": {
    "mult": 1.201,
    "n": 199
   },
   "bio_t45": {
    "mult": 1.142,
    "n": 45
   },
   "rare_t1": {
    "mult": 1.167,
    "n": 140
   },
   "rare_t2": {
    "mult": 1.369,
    "n": 80
   },
   "rare_t3": {
    "mult": 1.887,
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   },
   "rare_multi": {
    "mult": 1.422,
    "n": 19
   },
   "rare_t3_multi": {
    "mult": 1.25,
    "n": 1
   },
   "res_scarce_grad": {
    "mult": 1.724,
    "n": 265
   },
   "env_scarce_grad": {
    "mult": 1.122,
    "n": 1775
   },
   "art_scarce_grad": {
    "mult": 1.345,
    "n": 45
   },
   "env_rare_t12": {
    "mult": 0.845,
    "n": 47
   },
   "rare_t4": {
    "mult": 1.475,
    "n": 18
   },
   "rare_t5": {
    "mult": 1.94,
    "n": 9
   },
   "scarce2_t45": {
    "mult": 1.054,
    "n": 25
   },
   "dens5": {
    "mult": 1.011,
    "n": 179
   },
   "dens6": {
    "mult": 1.047,
    "n": 122
   },
   "dens7": {
    "mult": 1.047,
    "n": 76
   },
   "dens8p": {
    "mult": 1.054,
    "n": 73
   },
   "ct3_ge1": {
    "mult": 1.028,
    "n": 509
   },
   "ct3_ge2": {
    "mult": 1.047,
    "n": 60
   },
   "ct2_ge1": {
    "mult": 1,
    "n": 862
   },
   "ct2_ge2": {
    "mult": 1.034,
    "n": 183
   }
  },
  "shapeCal": null,
  "dispersion": {
   "rare2p": [
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    1.75
   ],
   "rare1": [
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    1.65
   ],
   "artifact": [
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    1.5
   ],
   "bigdense": [
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    1.6
   ]
  },
  "rareExtraDepth": true,
  "rarePackageLearning": true,
  "tierMono": true,
  "tierOrderCurves": true,
  "thinCapOn": true,
  "anchorShrink": 0.5,
  "rarePool": "gradual",
  "rarePoolKappa": 4,
  "wethMode": "off",
  "capLand": true,
  "pathFinished": true,
  "segDenom": "layered",
  "coverage": {
   "collectorEnvs": [
    "chaos"
   ],
   "receiptsEnvs": [],
   "receiptsTier": 5,
   "receiptsArtifacts": [
    "Archway",
    "Archway Keystone",
    "Blade of Eternum",
    "Blue Orb",
    "Celestial Egg",
    "Chest of Holding",
    "Foretelling Scroll",
    "Green Obelisk",
    "Koda Axe",
    "Koda Hammer",
    "Koda Pickaxe",
    "Mecha Piece",
    "Mirror Mirror",
    "Mystery Potion",
    "Pandora's Box",
    "Portal Piece",
    "Red Obelisk",
    "Relic Book Page",
    "Sword of Chosen",
    "Yellow Obelisk"
   ],
   "islandsCovered": true,
   "rareSales": {
    "schema": "mrdeeds-rare-sales/2",
    "version": "rare-t5-retained-2026-10-20",
    "enabled": true,
    "historyAsOf": "2026-10-26T08:24:31.430Z",
    "historyStart": "2025-03-01",
    "events": 35307,
    "historySha256": "73b621469b206cda44ef13522679e54d1cd3a00057d1315a6aea81c26d32d71a",
    "retainedReferenceSha256": "d3f4a61b6b553ef00e5f02acf12f12885b2484102886d67a78a4351ede11321c",
    "policySha256": "97de30e661952f3bd9c999bab28366f89bb62a71fd1970e24236504b93595660",
    "sourceHashes": {
     "tools/retained-rare-reference.mjs": "c64a3b34cf7c85a7f78c65d48bf86118b950b53ba3e9206e304b47e91ae35b6d",
     "tools/rare-sales-legacy.mjs": "858f23af4f9f38bf3b1e42383d476734f3844fd4da91b0cd621776ee604613cd",
     "tools/rare-sales-estimator.mjs": "18f1f2464e545c1b41f7294751903138d3a383bde38b1831f6a9986bf01edbfd",
     "tools/rare-land-fit.mjs": "ecb33a3adb647ff6e27bd1b0dad20dd4cacc3cd714a6abeba4f58d54c5298b7c",
     "tools/rare-sales-runtime.mjs": "b88c0ec9057efb3e812a6c0b820f653d7c4f8c89958853d2b62f314e3928e2fc",
     "tools/receipt-contract.mjs": "efd6c97190c1bfa06f56b819ed899620472489908334bff4177b5e5c86c346b2",
     "src/estimate-scale.js": "1d391fb9ffe904ce3ae1b92b18ecc5a80391c8b2e6c73472489ad455794d940d"
    },
    "environments": [
     "Acid",
     "Luster",
     "Botanical",
     "Sludge",
     "Obsidian",
     "Mycelium",
     "Shadow",
     "Sky",
     "Bone",
     "Crystal"
    ],
    "policy": {
     "environments": [
      "Acid",
      "Luster",
      "Botanical",
      "Sludge",
      "Obsidian",
      "Mycelium",
      "Shadow",
      "Sky",
      "Bone",
      "Crystal"
     ],
     "windows": [
      180,
      270,
      365
     ],
     "minDistinct": 3,
     "halfLifeDays": 90,
     "allowPriorOwnSale": true,
     "packagePremiumBeta": 1,
     "crossPackage": true,
     "crossPriorWeight": 1,
     "crossPriorMode": "quality",
     "derivedLand": true
    },
    "activeMode": "verified-consistency",
    "candidateStatus": {
     "state": "held",
     "reason": "Historical conditional replays contain regressions; the new land fit is not promoted.",
     "report": "data/rare-sales-validation.json",
     "reportSha256": "fddbabaa1b692e56e6d84835568aa6b5139c7f2699887d987bb426ade380c5e3"
    },
    "marketReference": "reconstructed sales proxy; coverage starts with the actual ledger, not an assumed two years of floors",
    "intraday": "maximum of value/fixed candidate curves, preserving fixed components in every branch",
    "uncertainty": "point and conditional evidence; no calibrated interval",
    "allocation": "existing plain/T1 land evidence preserved; component market-response and oracle consistency corrected; broader stacked land fit held by validation"
   },
   "rule": "collector (Chaos): no point, no range, no gap, no ranking, no total · receipts (unsupported named artifacts or missing rare-T5 record, except supported SALES packages): no public point or range — the segment's recent ETH sales and asks · everything else: point + calibrated range",
   "rescale": "lo_live = lo × est_live ÷ est; hi likewise (the calibrated multipliers hold under a level move; est_live = nl + (est − nl) × ratio)"
  },
  "rangeCal": {
   "schema": "mrdeeds-range-calibration/1",
   "written": "2026-09-06T15:51:07Z",
   "target": 0.8,
   "n": 2107,
   "windows": [
    "2026-03-08",
    "2026-03-22",
    "2026-04-05",
    "2026-04-19",
    "2026-05-03",
    "2026-05-17",
    "2026-05-31",
    "2026-06-14",
    "2026-06-28",
    "2026-07-12",
    "2026-07-26",
    "2026-08-09",
    "2026-08-23"
   ],
   "coverage": {
    "calibrated": 0.7983,
    "previous_ranges": 0.5672
   },
   "cells": {
    "plain|T1": {
     "n": 539,
     "lo": 0.838,
     "hi": 1.436,
     "med": 1.034,
     "source": "cell"
    },
    "plain|T2": {
     "n": 411,
     "lo": 0.841,
     "hi": 1.455,
     "med": 1.058,
     "source": "cell"
    },
    "plain|T3": {
     "n": 317,
     "lo": 0.855,
     "hi": 1.486,
     "med": 1.034,
     "source": "cell"
    },
    "plain|T4": {
     "n": 233,
     "lo": 0.823,
     "hi": 1.539,
     "med": 1.068,
     "source": "cell"
    },
    "plain|T5": {
     "n": 109,
     "lo": 0.839,
     "hi": 1.356,
     "med": 1.052,
     "source": "cell"
    },
    "artifact|T1": {
     "n": 81,
     "lo": 0.773,
     "hi": 1.406,
     "med": 1.083,
     "source": "cell"
    },
    "artifact|T2": {
     "n": 80,
     "lo": 0.807,
     "hi": 1.287,
     "med": 0.996,
     "source": "cell"
    },
    "artifact|T3": {
     "n": 74,
     "lo": 0.791,
     "hi": 1.334,
     "med": 1.016,
     "source": "cell"
    },
    "artifact|T4": {
     "n": 53,
     "lo": 0.78,
     "hi": 1.454,
     "med": 1.005,
     "source": "cell"
    },
    "artifact|T5": {
     "n": 25,
     "lo": 0.776,
     "hi": 1.374,
     "med": 1.016,
     "source": "path"
    },
    "rare|T1": {
     "n": 26,
     "lo": 0.706,
     "hi": 1.428,
     "med": 1.018,
     "source": "path"
    },
    "rare|T2": {
     "n": 26,
     "lo": 0.706,
     "hi": 1.428,
     "med": 1.018,
     "source": "path"
    },
    "rare|T3": {
     "n": 25,
     "lo": 0.706,
     "hi": 1.428,
     "med": 1.018,
     "source": "path"
    },
    "rare|T4": {
     "n": 14,
     "lo": 0.706,
     "hi": 1.428,
     "med": 1.018,
     "source": "path"
    },
    "rare|T5": {
     "n": 11,
     "lo": 0.706,
     "hi": 1.428,
     "med": 1.018,
     "source": "path"
    },
    "multi|T1": {
     "n": 0,
     "lo": 0.817,
     "hi": 1.457,
     "med": 1.043,
     "source": "all"
    },
    "multi|T2": {
     "n": 1,
     "lo": 0.817,
     "hi": 1.457,
     "med": 1.043,
     "source": "all"
    },
    "multi|T3": {
     "n": 1,
     "lo": 0.817,
     "hi": 1.457,
     "med": 1.043,
     "source": "all"
    },
    "multi|T4": {
     "n": 0,
     "lo": 0.817,
     "hi": 1.457,
     "med": 1.043,
     "source": "all"
    },
    "multi|T5": {
     "n": 0,
     "lo": 0.817,
     "hi": 1.457,
     "med": 1.043,
     "source": "all"
    },
    "cell|T1": {
     "n": 5,
     "lo": 0.817,
     "hi": 1.457,
     "med": 1.043,
     "source": "all"
    },
    "cell|T2": {
     "n": 0,
     "lo": 0.817,
     "hi": 1.457,
     "med": 1.043,
     "source": "all"
    },
    "cell|T3": {
     "n": 1,
     "lo": 0.817,
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    },
    "cell|T4": {
     "n": 1,
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    },
    "cell|T5": {
     "n": 5,
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    },
    "art|T1": {
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    },
    "art|T2": {
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    },
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    },
    "thin|T1": {
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    },
    "thin|T2": {
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   "itemPoolN": 18,
   "itemPolicy": "creature-artifact-items-2026-10-13-v1",
   "status": "anchor",
   "cheapAsk": 0.5555
  },
  {
   "key": "art:Yellow Orb",
   "kind": "artifact",
   "label": "Yellow Orb",
   "supply": 60,
   "n": 4,
   "status": "anchor",
   "cheapAsk": 15
  },
  {
   "key": "art:Z",
   "kind": "artifact",
   "label": "Z",
   "supply": 90,
   "n": 0,
   "itemPoolN": 18,
   "itemPolicy": "creature-artifact-items-2026-10-13-v1",
   "status": "anchor",
   "cheapAsk": null
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 ],
 "note": "segment anchors: mode \"mult\" scales the LAND value (artifact rides on top at its own worth); mode \"add\" is the artifact's market component added to the deed's other traits. Eligible carrier asks constrain the measured segment or item component. Subsequent whole-deed attested-sale and tier-order adjustments can raise the final estimate above an ask; these component limits are not a final-price ceiling.",
 "rareHybridNote": "HYBRID FORM (2026-09-02): tier>=2 rare deposits price additively at their components while a tier-1 deposit on the same deed keeps its own multiplier row (rare_t1); only the additive deposits' rows are stripped. ATTESTED components: rows carrying attested:[{plot,day,print,share,comp}] were set by operator-attested prints (sales-admissions.json) — the attested median overrides the pooled/shrunk/curve value; the live-carrier cap still applies. RARE_HYBRID=0 / ATTESTED_COMP=0 disable.",
 "rareNote": "Tier-2 and tier-3 rare deposits use additive components. Tier-1 deposits keep their multiplier. Multi-resource deeds compare the completed component and multiplicative paths, then apply depth-order constraints. Observations and supply-curve estimates remain distinguishable. Established resource premiums retained from the published checkpoint cannot fall solely because a sale expires or an ask falls; lower replacements require review. Retained rows carry their original date and provenance.",
 "rareCurvePolicy": {
  "schema": "mrdeeds-resource-curve/1",
  "version": "rare-t3-tail-2026-09-11",
  "approvedAt": "2026-09-11T13:38:19Z",
  "formula": "exp(a + b*ln(supply) + gamma*max(0,ln(pivot/supply)))",
  "base": {
   "2": {
    "a": 9.819,
    "b": -1.98
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   "3": {
    "a": 11.541,
    "b": -2.224
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  "tail": {
   "tier": 3,
   "pivot": 250,
   "gamma": 0.5982864617528476
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  "method": "Weighted log residual regression at the existing 250-deposit very-rare boundary. Latest sale per deed; ETH and explicitly reviewed negotiated WETH only; reviewed weight 3, other sales 60-day half-life. Same-resource packages split per deposit. No artifact, Koda, island, Chaos or rare-environment T5 carriers.",
  "validation": {
   "asOf": "2026-09-11T13:30:00.000Z",
   "pivot": 250,
   "gamma": 0.5982864617528476,
   "without18293": 0.5657154864038606,
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     "component": 1.8500278583293208,
     "count": 1,
     "admitted": true,
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     "mdape": 0.17565146749447513,
     "within25": 0.6153846153846154,
     "mae": 0.15887839489031602
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  "limitations": "Five independent scarce T3 deeds. Leave-resource-out checks are retrospective, not a future trading test. Other resources borrow a scarcity relationship, not direct sale evidence. T1, T2 and the curve at supply 250 or above are unchanged."
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 "rareCurveNote": "Missing components use exp(a + b*ln(supply)). Since 11 September 2026 the T3 curve below 250 total resource deposits also includes gamma*ln(250/supply), gamma=0.5982864617528476. The saved rareCurvePolicy contains the effective time, observations and retrospective validation. Specific measured components and reviewed receipts take precedence; supply-curve rows have n=0 and are an inference, not a confirmed trade.",
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