How the base works — the intercept, in plain terms

How the base works

The one-sentence version: the base is what a completely plain deed actually sells for — everything else on a deed is multiplied on top of that.

Every estimate on this site starts from the same first line: the collection floor (the cheapest live listing) times a number called the base intercept. That number is not a guess and not a markup — it is the bridge between two different things: what sellers are asking and what buyers are actually paying.

Generated 2026-09-21 08:25 UTC · refit 2026-09-02. This page is rebuilt with every site build, so the numbers above are the ones in use right now.

The receipts

The 10 most recent plain-deed sales the model can see (of 788 in the 180d window). "Plain" means: mainland, no artifact, environment tier 3 or below, not Biogenic Swamp, at most one resource slot filled, no rare resources — a deed with nothing for the multipliers to price.

Median ratio across all 788 plain sales in the window: 1.054× the day's benchmark. The fitted value of ×1.019 differs slightly because the fit weighs recent sales more heavily and down-weights quick flips — but they tell the same story: plain deeds consistently print a little above the cheapest ask.

Why isn't it just 1.000?

Think of the cheapest house on a street. It is almost never the "going rate" — it is the most motivated seller: someone who wants out today and priced accordingly. The going rate is what houses on that street close at, and that is consistently a bit above the most desperate ask. NFT floors work the same way. The cheapest listing is one wallet's urgency; confirmed sales are the market. Across 2,114 sales, plain deeds have printed at about ×1.019 their day's benchmark — so anchoring estimates to the raw ask floor would systematically undervalue everything by that margin.

What gets filtered out

Not every print is a market price, so the fit is picky about what counts. Accepted WETH bids are excluded from the fit — those are holders hitting a standing lowball bid, usually from bots fishing below market. The daily benchmark itself is computed from plain ETH sales only; WETH bid-hits never enter it and never set the level. Extreme floor-relative distress sales are excluded outright. And a rapid ETH resale by a wallet that acquired the same deed via a WETH bid-hit is tagged a quick flip and down-weighted — the print is real, but it is priced for velocity off a distressed basis and measurably clears under market. (The exact screening thresholds are deliberately not published — see the methodology on manipulation resistance.)

Honest limits

The base intercept aligns the level, not individual deeds — a specific deed can sell above or below any estimate for reasons no model sees. The benchmark trails a fast-moving market by design (it follows confirmed sales, not asks, so a sudden ask-floor sweep moves the displayed floor before it moves estimates). And all of it is fitted to past sales, which is the only thing a model can ever be fitted to. Full methodology caveats and conflict-of-interest notes: Disclosures.