Koda #851 Estimate — Koda estimate walkthrough, August 31, 2026

KODA #851 ESTIMATE OpenSea Listing #851 | Mr. Deeds Koda #851 A strong combination led by two traits with measured market premiums — weapon presence and the KodaPendant — plus a scarce aesthetic distinction (one Mega-shared trait) the current data does not price. The ask sits just above the model estimate in a thin market where both can be wrong.

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CURRENT LISTING

Ask: 1.145 ETH Model estimate: 1.1248 ETH — 1.8% over estimate Status: listed now

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TRAIT BREAKDOWN

Weapon: Koda Unraveler — 36 of 10,000 carry this weapon type The weapon-presence cohort (any weapon, 2,313 of 10,000) has cleared at a substantial premium across both measured windows: median 1.1699 ETH over 90 days (n=27) and 1.1824 ETH over 365 days (n=334), about 1.62x the all-regular median over 90 days and 1.42x over 365 days. Weapon presence is the strongest single priced trait in the current model. KodaPendant: yes — 1,629 of 10,000 carry it The pendant cohort cleared at median 0.86 ETH over 90 days (n=41) and 0.9444 ETH over 365 days (n=299), about 1.19x the all-regular median over 90 days and 1.14x over 365 days. The pendant creates a visible trail effect in Otherside. Mega-shared traits: 1 — Koda Cave Fright eyes (43 of 10,000) Only Eyes, Weapon, and Clothing values are shareable with Megas, so three Mega traits is the hard ceiling (110 regulars). The 1-Mega-trait cohort (2,894 regulars) cleared at median 0.7198 ETH over 90 days (n=58) and 0.853 ETH over 365 days (n=602) — essentially at baseline (about 1.00x the all-regular median over 90 days and 1.03x over 365 days). This is a scarce distinction with little independent premium in current data. Head: Koda Horned Lion — 83 of 10,000 Core: Koda Lava Lamp — 371 of 10,000 Clothing: none — having clothing at all is the minority trait (4,683 of 10,000 carry any clothing) Abilities: Weaken (3,009 carriers) · Damage Over Time (4,419 carriers) Neither ability cohort shows a material premium in the measured data.

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MODEL ESTIMATE

FAIR VALUE1.0747–1.1749 ETH (centered on 1.1248) Built: level 0.6628 ETH (trailing plain-koda sale median) × weapon × mega-trait rung × pendant — coefficients 2026-08-29 (model v2) Backtest: walk-forward median miss 4.5% vs 5.5% for the market level alone, on 102 held-out sales Note on the estimate: this is a new addition (launched 2026-08-23) fitted to recorded ETH sales in a thin market where live sales tracking is limited and should improve over time. The model prices exactly two single traits — carrying a weapon (the strongest priced effect, stable every month on record) and the KodaPendant — while every other lone trait and ability measured inside sale noise and is deliberately pinned at no premium. Model base vs market median reconciliation: the model's 0.6628 ETH base is the trailing plain-regular level (premium traits excluded); the all-regular market median of 0.7204 ETH over 90 days (n=154) includes every trait — they should differ, and the median sits higher because it includes weapon carriers, pendants, and multi-Mega-trait kodas.

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COHORT COMPARABLES

Weapon-presence cohort (any weapon): 90-day median: 1.1699 ETH (n=27) 365-day median: 1.1824 ETH (n=334) Accepted bids (90d): 36 — the immediate-liquidity value for weapon carriers who accepted standing offers KodaPendant cohort: 90-day median: 0.86 ETH (n=41) 365-day median: 0.9444 ETH (n=299) Accepted bids (90d): 35 1-Mega-trait cohort: 90-day median: 0.7198 ETH (n=58) 365-day median: 0.853 ETH (n=602) Accepted bids (90d): 69 All regulars (baseline): 90-day median: 0.7204 ETH (n=154) 365-day median: 0.83 ETH (n=1,450) Live floor: 0.722 ETH (146 listed) Observation: Koda #851 stacks weapon + pendant + 1 Mega trait. The overlapping single-axis cohorts (weapon / pendant / Mega-trait) do not sum to an intersection price — the model estimates the intersection; the medians are context and comps. The weapon cohort's absolute clearing level held stable across both windows (1.17–1.18 ETH), though the premium multiple moved as the regular base moved.

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SALE HISTORY

Recorded sales of Koda #851: none in the available data Implication: the estimate and cohort medians are the only pricing signals; this koda's own receipts do not exist to outrank them.

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THE MARKET IN 30 SECONDS

Floor now: 0.722 ETH (146 listed) 90-day picture: all-regular median 0.7204 ETH (n=154 ETH sales); weapon cohort median 1.1699 ETH (n=27) Psychology: weapon carriers hold a substantial premium (about 1.62x the regular median over 90 days), and the pendant adds a measured layer on top (about 1.19x). The 1-Mega-trait distinction does not price in current data.

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VERDICT ON THE CURRENT ASK

FAIR VALUE1.0747–1.1749 ETH (centered on 1.1248) The ask of 1.145 ETH sits 1.8% above the model estimate, well inside the model's own error band (the walk-forward median miss is 4.5%, meaning half of misses were larger). In a thin market where both the ask and the model can be wrong, this is essentially model-aligned. Character read: this is a weapon-carrier pendant koda — the two traits with the strongest measured premiums in the current market — plus a scarce aesthetic distinction (Cave Fright eyes, shared with Megas) that does not currently price. The weapon cohort has cleared consistently around 1.17–1.18 ETH across both measured windows, and the pendant cohort adds a measured premium on top of that. If you're buying: the ask is at model value within normal variation. The weapon premium has persisted across both measured windows, and the pendant premium has held as well. A lower entry would require either waiting for a below-cohort print (the weapon cohort's 90-day median is 1.1699 ETH, so this ask sits near that level) or accepting a koda without one of these traits. The available data do not provide a reliable weapon-pendant-intersection-specific immediate-exit level — check current standing offers if immediate liquidity matters. If you're selling: the ask is defensible against the model estimate and sits near the weapon cohort's recent clearing level. The pendant adds a measured premium, and the Mega-shared trait is a scarce distinction even if the current data do not price it. Resale support should be stronger than a floor regular's while the weapon premium persists — though in a thin market (27 weapon-carrier prints over 90 days, 334 over 365 days), individual sales move slowly. FAIR PRICE— at model value within the estimate's own error band, near the weapon cohort's measured clearing level

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What else this money buys: at 1.145 ETH you are paying for the weapon premium (the strongest priced trait) plus the pendant premium. A floor regular without these traits sits around 0.72 ETH — the difference is the market's measured price for the combination. Whether that premium persists depends on future gameplay and collector demand, neither of which is certain.

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Prices move fast and this is automated market information and statistical model opinion — not investment, financial, or legal advice. Full methodology: Koda Methodology